Mr. Talk Nails It Again!

You know, sometimes I scare myself when I don my swami hat to make predictions, and not just because it lowers my apparent IQ by forty points. It seems I am right an uncanny number of times (Mrs. Talk would take issue with that, of course--perhaps with a rolling pin). Still, there’s no gainsaying the fact that I correctly predicted that there would be no layoffs in 2010. Some called me crazy (Mrs. Talk would agree on that one), but the fact remains that layoffs were averted. I also correctly called the ever diminishing Teacher’s Choice allotment, and my prediction that at least one of your admins would be a dick is beyond question.

Nevertheless, it came as a shock even to me when I basically nailed the resignation of “Chancellor” Cathie Black. When she first took office, I predicted that she would be out by April 1, and I only missed the mark by six days.

One question remains unanswered about this surprise announcement. First of all, did Cathie resign, or was she fired? I’d say fired, because Dennis Walcott’s appointment came just moments after her meeting with Bloomberg, so apparently he had this move in mind for a while. Of course, it is also possible that Mayor4Life conducted the same exhaustive search for Black’s replacement that he did for Black herself, by which I mean Walcott happened to be in the room at the time.

Another question that hangs in the air is: Why now? Sure, Cathie’s poll numbers hit a new low last week, but she’s never exactly been Justin Bieber. I think the truth is that Black was brought in to be the corporate chainsaw who would oversee the massive layoffs that would have occurred had Bloomie gotten his way on eliminating seniority. Now that Bloomberg's plan to end "LIFO" is dead, Cathie is out.

I’m sure the burning question in your mind is—What can we expect from Dennis Walcott? And what does Mr. Talk have to say about it? Here are my predictions:

Walcott is African American, so I expect he and Bloomie will take one more shot at LIFO. They’ll send Walcott out to black neighborhoods to claim that laying off new teachers will disproportionately affect their neighborhoods.

Once that fails, Walcott will announce some miraculous savings he has found/cuts he can make/wallet he has found in the street, and call off layoffs for 2011. Walcott then appears to be a hero and Bloomie is off the hook and doesn’t have to fire precious newbie teachers like Ruben Brosbe.

Other than that, absolutely nothing will change. Bloomie will still be rich. You will still end up buying your own staples and construction paper. One of your admins will continue to be a dick.

And so it goes.

Mr. Talk Shoots for the Big Time

I don't know if you've heard, but GothamSchools is hiring! This is huge news for a small time blogger like me--my chance to make the big time! I hope you, my faithful readers, won't mind if I audition right here?

I know the three of you are skeptical. I can hear you thinking: "Mr. Talk writing for Gotham? Why, he's pro-union, anti-Unity, and borderline socialist!" Never fear. I'm willing to be employed by a hedge fund manager for a price, which is one of the main qualifications for this gig.

Let's start with my version of the Remainders, in which GS does the daily roundup of news.

REMAINDERS

• A new study says that teachers suck. (WSJ)
• No, really. (Post)
• An education expert from TFA with nearly three weeks of teaching experience speculates that value-added is the way to go. (The Illinois Right Leaning Testicle)
• Tenure or global warming: Which will cause civilization to collapse quicker? (The Obvious Intelligencer)
  
• A teacher somewhere in the known world made inappropriate remarks to a student. (World Weekly News)
• We mean teachers really suck! (Post)
• Mayor Bloomberg, Bill Gates, Eli Broad, and Whitney Tilson announced a new initiative to ensure that every child knows that they are really, really rich. (Forbes)
• Eva Moskowitz defended her decision to take over a public school at gunpoint and convert it to a charter by saying it's "for the children!" (Jejune Journal)
• Rupert Murdock stated that "heads will roll" after it was discovered that today's edition of the Post contained only two editorials blasting LIFO. (Post)
• We mean they bite the big one! (DN)

Of course, there's more to GS than aggregating news. There's also the community section, and I'm sure candidates for staff writer will be expected to contribute to that, as well. For my audition piece, I decided I could follow no wiser course than to emulate my hero and award winning blogger, Ruben Brosbe.

GS COMMUNITY

Blame It All on Me
By Mr. Talk

I got my teacher data report today, and boy, was I disappointed! For all the good I did, they may as well have put a tree stump at my desk! Until today, I assumed that all teacher data reports must contain positive integers. Was I ever wrong!

I wanted to reflect on my abject failure, so I added an extra thirty minutes to my self-flagellation routine this morning in hopes of finding an answer, but to no avail. So I went to visit my assistant principal to see if she had any insights. She said I was an abhorrent worm and a stain on the face of humanity, and of course I agreed. But wasn't there more to it than that? I must be doing something wrong!

I analyzed my workday and got a real surprise. It turns out that I am not using my time to best advantage. For example, I usually go pee twice a day during school hours. That's a full four minutes that I am not spending with my deserving children! I knew I needed to pee faster, and I discovered that if I scrunched up my face and visualized senior teachers floating in the urinal, I could cut 45 seconds off my time. Still, it wasn't enough, so I self-inserted a catheter and attached the other end to an empty hot water bottle that I duct taped to my leg.

Some of my colleagues tell me not to be so hard on myself. They point to the troubled home lives of some of my students, such as the boy who set my trousers on fire last week. But those are just excuses. If I hadn't been wearing flammable pants, it would never have happened! Please leave encouraging comments below that fully express your pity for me as I confront my ineptitude. In the meantime, I will be working tirelessly to get you fired.

So, that's my audition. Philissa Cramer, I'm waiting on your call!

.

Mr. Talk Goes Viral

No, I don't need any antibiotics. One of my posts has gone viral.

I wanted my post on the (un?)intended consequences of teacher data reports to get some attention, but who knew the thing would explode? I owe the debt to one 3v1|D4v3 on Reddit, who linked to this blog under the heading "Top Teacher is Asked to Take over the Challenged Kids Class. Find Out Why He Said No the Next Year."

For the record, I never claimed to be a top teacher, but I do lay claim to being a hard working one who always tries to improve. I've never shunned difficult students and I have a record of more than two decades of satisfactory performance. Make of that what you will.

I mention all this because of the astounding fact that this blog has received more than 100,000 hits in the last ten hours. On a normal day, I might get 200. There are more than 450 comment on Reddit. See for yourself.

This tells me that people do care about education. On a lovely Sunday afternoon, 100,000 people took the time to read about what's happening in NYC's schools. That is amazing to me.

Thanks to all who stopped by. I hope to see you again.

Mr. Talk Predicts: No Layoffs

I'm putting on my fortune teller hat again, temporarily putting the propeller beanie to the side. And my prediction for the current fiscal year is: There will be no layoffs of teachers in NYC.

If you've been around the block a few times as I have, you know that the city predicts teacher layoffs just about every time a new teacher contract rolls around (odd coincidence, that). Yet the last time any actual teachers were laid off was in the 1970s. I'm not saying that there are no real economic difficulties; clearly there are. But I don't think anyone will lose their jobs over them, and here's why.

First, I think the threat is largely another implementation of the Shock Doctrine by Mayor4Life Bloomberg. He uses it all the time (see here and here). If you're unfamiliar, the Shock Doctrine is when politicians uses crises to help them implement unpopular policies. GW Bush pushed through an entire bogus war using 9/11 for political cover, and then set about eviscerating many of our cherished civil liberties (such as not getting waterboarded because you look Middle Eastern). Our mayor, however, has added a new twist to the doctrine. He's using it not to get layoffs, but to get what are, to him, the right layoffs. His goal is to twist the arm of the union and state by threatening layoffs in order to be able to fire senior teachers. Mayor4Life doesn't like senior teachers because we make those incredibly high salaries that cost almost as much as his weekend jaunts to Bermuda. Now that it's apparent that even Michael Mulgrew isn't going to give in on "last in first out", the mayor has no reason to push for layoffs. They would just make him look like the crummy mayor he is, like the NAEP scores do.

Second, the state always shortchanges the city in their preliminary budget proposals, and they always restore at least some of the cuts before the budget is final.

Third, President Obama doesn't want to look like any more of an idiot on education than he already does. Think of it--he's dangling 4 billion dollars in front of states in the form of Race to the Top funds that can't even be used to avert layoffs. How's it going to look when he gives 700 million to New York and then says we can't use it to save teachers--but we can buy a lot of new shiny data systems with it? At this moment, there is a bill in the senate to spend 23 billion nationwide to avert teacher layoffs, with 400 million going to NY. Obama would have to be a fool not to sign it after bailing out banks, oil companies, and every other rich institution he could think of. Not only that, massive teacher layoffs would cause the unemployment numbers to spike--the very last thing Obama wants.

Finally, and perhaps the weakest link in the chain, is the UFT itself. Mulgrew has already floated a retirement incentive proposal that would accomplish what the mayor wants (to get rid of senior teachers) and what the union wants (to maintain the same level of dues). It seems like a perfect match. And from a logical standpoint, the city pretty much has to go along at this point, because a lot of teachers who probably would have retired in June without the incentive will now wait until an incentive gets done. My only hesitation about this one is that Mulgrew has shown no ability to get anything done unless it hurts the membership. It remains to be seen if he can do anything to help.

So there you have it. No layoffs. Of course, none of this will get done before pink slips go out, because by law they have to go out shortly. Still, I predict we'll soon see Klein, Mayor4Life, and Mulgrew standing on the steps of city hall, hands raised in solidarity and triumph, announcing how they worked together to save NY schools and the world. We can only hope they don't kiss.

Mr. Chips vs. Buffalo Chips

As I mentioned earlier today, there's a reasonable chance that ARIS can tell you what classes you'll be teaching next week, and in many cases, the students you'll be teaching. I saw mine, and already I know what the future holds.

Like most middle school teachers, I ended up with a top class, a middle class, and what's indelicately known as a "bottom" class. I was able to see the scores of their standardized tests from last year as well as their AYP (annual yearly progress). It used to be that you were judged by how many of your students went from 2s to 3s, or 3s to 4s. These days, it's all about AYP. ALL your students are supposed to make a year's progress this school year. It's probably more true now than ever, as the ELA and math tests are being held much later and you'll be seen as responsible for the entire year.

I'm not worried, because I already know where my students will end up on next year's exams!

How do I know? Am I some kind of genius? Of course, but that's not how. It's just a little bit of data from ARIS mixed with a lot of experience. Here's how it breaks down:

• In my top class, only two of my future students failed to make their AYP last year. They are readers and achievers, and when I work with them this year, they will continue to be so.
• In my middle class, it's more a mixed bag. Only ten failed to make AYP, but at least ten others made it by a hair's breadth. These students need to be worked hard and motivated to make real progress. I'll do that, and some will have great years while others have to dragged kicking and screaming to get them to read.
• In my bottom class, no one made their AYP. That's right--NO ONE. That's not a surprise to me, as that is what makes them a bottom class. They have very limited skills. Most have progressed about half a year for every year they have been in school so far, and it will be a miracle if I can get more than a handful to make a year's progress now.

In what will seem an anomaly to educational researchers (you know, those people who don't teach but write papers about it anyway), my top class will have far more students in it than my bottom class--perhaps as many as ten more. It will make no difference. The real math of teaching is that 34 highly motivated kids > 24 unmotivated kids.

My point here is that this is why test data should not be used to evaluate teachers. If I were one of the Divas who always get all the top classes, I'd look like Mr. Chips. If I got all the bottom classes, I'd look like buffalo chips.

And if a vindictive admin gave you a lot of bottom classes, he could "prove" you were a lousy teacher. It would be Goodbye, Mr. Buffalo Chips and a one way ticket to the rubber room.