Mr. Talk Nails It Again

Yes, the contract has been approved. But the big news is that Mr. Talk once again nailed the numbers.

Technically, the contract passed with 77% of the vote of UFT members. I predicted 75%, which was the exact percentage of teachers who voted yes. School secretaries, paras, and social workers, who are not subject to many of the provisions that regular teachers are, voted almost 85% in favor of the contract, thus skewing my numbers. Well, no one is perfect.

Certainly the contract isn't perfect, either. It opens up ATRs to near immediate firing, bows to the ed reform whims of E4E (with a "career ladder" that is merit pay) and to faux lawyers like Campbell Brown, and it defers money that we are owed so far into the future that inflation will chomp on your checks like Pacman on meth.

The question here is--what's next? I'd be willing to make another prediction--that we could flip flop the voting results and come up with a pretty good estimate of the number of teachers who had to swallow hard to vote yes on this contract. I'd wager that at least 75% of you really hate this contract--either you voted no or you voted yes because you thought this was the best that your union could do.

And if you are in the latter group, you are sadly correct. This contract is probably the best that Mulgrew and Unity could have done. Which is why they need to go.

If you believe in our union, as I do, you should not be satisfied with what Unity has done here. Many teachers will forget the ugly parts of this agreement as soon as that juicy $1000 bribe arrives. Don't be one of them. Remember this the next time you are asked whom you want to head your union. If you vote for Unity and Mulgrew, expect more of the same.

That's a prediction I can make with 100% certainty.

Mr. Talk Predicts: Your Guide To 2013

As many of you are aware, I have an uncanny knack of predicting the future of the NYC public schools. I don't wear this fortune teller's hat because it's a babe magnet, you know.

We have an interesting year ahead of us, with a contract to be negotiated, evaluation talks, an outgoing mayor, a union election, and more. Here are some of my prognostications for the new year:

Despite the fact that "Waiting for Superman" failed to influence anyone and "Won't Back Down" earned less money than I currently have in my couch cushions, the reformers will once again try to use entertainment to sway public opinion. Reformers will pick a new genre, as documentaries and fictional movies have failed to click. To that end, StudentsFirst will present "Rhee-formers on Ice", an entertainment extravaganza starring Michelle Rhee as the Ice Queen, who will skate a bloody figure 8 into a senior teacher's chest in the finale. Kevin Johnson will co-star as the uncle no one will let near their children.

The UFT will continue breaking off large chunks of our contract and handing them over, gratis, to the city. Mulgrew will call each of these events a victory, and talk about how glad he is to have a seat at the table, even as he pulls the chair out from under teachers.

Teacher's Choice will survive, but in a new format. Rather than giving each teacher the current whopping $45 a year for classroom supplies, the city will finally increase that amount to $1000 per teacher. Unfortunately, that money will come directly from teacher salaries. Michael Mulgrew will promote this idea because "teachers already spend more than $1000 dollar a year each, on average. Making it official gives us leverage with companies like Staples, who want our business." The UFT will declare this a victory for teachers.


Despite no contract, a sellout evaluation agreement, and a loss of vacation days due to Sandy, Mulgrew will win re-election as UFT president. Only 25% of UFT members will vote. The other 75% will express surprise that there was even an election. This will be the only victory that the UFT will declare in 2013 that will actually be a victory, albeit not for the teachers themselves.

In a surprise move, Anthony Weiner will throw his hat into the mayoral race. He will immediately grab his hat back when he realizes it was the only thing covering his genitals. His campaign slogan, "Go Big with Weiner!" will be a huge hit with bloggers everywhere. The UFT, in keeping with their history of supporting wieners in elections, grants him an endorsement. Weiner will win the election and Mulgrew will declare that his endorsement gave Weiner the momentum he needed to thrust himself to victory, causing the city to come together.

To no one's surprise, this blog will continue making Weiner jokes in 2013.

Mayor Weiner will choose erstwhile Gotham Schools blogger and celebrated E4E asshat Ruben Brosbe as Chancellor. He will cite Ruben's extensive experience at not achieving tenure as a major plus. "None of our three previous chancellors had any real experience in the classroom," Weiner will say. "Brosbe actually taught and failed to achieve tenure, which will inspire future teachers not to expect tenure, either."

Although there will be no new teacher's contract in 2013, it will be a year of innovative deals, such as giving in on teacher evaluations in exchange for a promise of 'economic credit" in the event a contract is ever signed. This will lead to a pinky swear on the Danielson Framework, a cross-my-heart-and-hope-to-die ATR agreement, a hand-to-God paperwork reduction agreement, and a swear-on-my-mom's-life no charter school pledge. Mulgrew will hail all these innovations as a victory for the union. In a shocking turn of events, Mayor Bloomberg will reveal that he had his fingers crossed the whole time. Anthony Weiner's "No Take Backs" pledge will turn the tide in his favor and sweep him into the mayor's office.



Some quick predictions to round things out:

• At least one of your admins will be a dick.
• Cathie Black's emails to Bloomberg will finally be released.  The most damaging revelation will be that she referred to the mayor as "Poopsie".
• Reformers will claim that everything they do is for the kids, even if they propose tying students in potato sacks and beating them with ball peen hammers.
• Eva Moskowitz will begin planting flags in the public schools she wants to take over and claiming them for "The Country of Moskovia".
• Evan Stone and Sydney Morris will marry, but only so they can spawn more members for E$E.
• Diane Ravitch will continue to defend public schools and sound educational policy by typing more on her blog and Twitter feed than seems humanly possible. It will be revealed that she also types with her feet.
• Arne Duncan will bring phonics back to schools, but only after he gets tired of everyone pronouncing his name "Arn" instead of "Arnie".
• Mayor Bloomberg will continue to increase class sizes while pushing a law to reduce the size of a "large fries" to whatever can fit in a urine sample cup. 
• The mayor's push to eliminate guns will take up a larger and larger amount of his time. This will result in dramatic improvement in the schools.
• Michael Mulgrew will declare all of the above a victory for teachers.

Add your own predictions to the comments, and happy new year!

Mr. Talk Nails It Again!

You know, sometimes I scare myself when I don my swami hat to make predictions, and not just because it lowers my apparent IQ by forty points. It seems I am right an uncanny number of times (Mrs. Talk would take issue with that, of course--perhaps with a rolling pin). Still, there’s no gainsaying the fact that I correctly predicted that there would be no layoffs in 2010. Some called me crazy (Mrs. Talk would agree on that one), but the fact remains that layoffs were averted. I also correctly called the ever diminishing Teacher’s Choice allotment, and my prediction that at least one of your admins would be a dick is beyond question.

Nevertheless, it came as a shock even to me when I basically nailed the resignation of “Chancellor” Cathie Black. When she first took office, I predicted that she would be out by April 1, and I only missed the mark by six days.

One question remains unanswered about this surprise announcement. First of all, did Cathie resign, or was she fired? I’d say fired, because Dennis Walcott’s appointment came just moments after her meeting with Bloomberg, so apparently he had this move in mind for a while. Of course, it is also possible that Mayor4Life conducted the same exhaustive search for Black’s replacement that he did for Black herself, by which I mean Walcott happened to be in the room at the time.

Another question that hangs in the air is: Why now? Sure, Cathie’s poll numbers hit a new low last week, but she’s never exactly been Justin Bieber. I think the truth is that Black was brought in to be the corporate chainsaw who would oversee the massive layoffs that would have occurred had Bloomie gotten his way on eliminating seniority. Now that Bloomberg's plan to end "LIFO" is dead, Cathie is out.

I’m sure the burning question in your mind is—What can we expect from Dennis Walcott? And what does Mr. Talk have to say about it? Here are my predictions:

Walcott is African American, so I expect he and Bloomie will take one more shot at LIFO. They’ll send Walcott out to black neighborhoods to claim that laying off new teachers will disproportionately affect their neighborhoods.

Once that fails, Walcott will announce some miraculous savings he has found/cuts he can make/wallet he has found in the street, and call off layoffs for 2011. Walcott then appears to be a hero and Bloomie is off the hook and doesn’t have to fire precious newbie teachers like Ruben Brosbe.

Other than that, absolutely nothing will change. Bloomie will still be rich. You will still end up buying your own staples and construction paper. One of your admins will continue to be a dick.

And so it goes.

Mr. Talk Predicts: No Layoffs

I'm putting on my fortune teller hat again, temporarily putting the propeller beanie to the side. And my prediction for the current fiscal year is: There will be no layoffs of teachers in NYC.

If you've been around the block a few times as I have, you know that the city predicts teacher layoffs just about every time a new teacher contract rolls around (odd coincidence, that). Yet the last time any actual teachers were laid off was in the 1970s. I'm not saying that there are no real economic difficulties; clearly there are. But I don't think anyone will lose their jobs over them, and here's why.

First, I think the threat is largely another implementation of the Shock Doctrine by Mayor4Life Bloomberg. He uses it all the time (see here and here). If you're unfamiliar, the Shock Doctrine is when politicians uses crises to help them implement unpopular policies. GW Bush pushed through an entire bogus war using 9/11 for political cover, and then set about eviscerating many of our cherished civil liberties (such as not getting waterboarded because you look Middle Eastern). Our mayor, however, has added a new twist to the doctrine. He's using it not to get layoffs, but to get what are, to him, the right layoffs. His goal is to twist the arm of the union and state by threatening layoffs in order to be able to fire senior teachers. Mayor4Life doesn't like senior teachers because we make those incredibly high salaries that cost almost as much as his weekend jaunts to Bermuda. Now that it's apparent that even Michael Mulgrew isn't going to give in on "last in first out", the mayor has no reason to push for layoffs. They would just make him look like the crummy mayor he is, like the NAEP scores do.

Second, the state always shortchanges the city in their preliminary budget proposals, and they always restore at least some of the cuts before the budget is final.

Third, President Obama doesn't want to look like any more of an idiot on education than he already does. Think of it--he's dangling 4 billion dollars in front of states in the form of Race to the Top funds that can't even be used to avert layoffs. How's it going to look when he gives 700 million to New York and then says we can't use it to save teachers--but we can buy a lot of new shiny data systems with it? At this moment, there is a bill in the senate to spend 23 billion nationwide to avert teacher layoffs, with 400 million going to NY. Obama would have to be a fool not to sign it after bailing out banks, oil companies, and every other rich institution he could think of. Not only that, massive teacher layoffs would cause the unemployment numbers to spike--the very last thing Obama wants.

Finally, and perhaps the weakest link in the chain, is the UFT itself. Mulgrew has already floated a retirement incentive proposal that would accomplish what the mayor wants (to get rid of senior teachers) and what the union wants (to maintain the same level of dues). It seems like a perfect match. And from a logical standpoint, the city pretty much has to go along at this point, because a lot of teachers who probably would have retired in June without the incentive will now wait until an incentive gets done. My only hesitation about this one is that Mulgrew has shown no ability to get anything done unless it hurts the membership. It remains to be seen if he can do anything to help.

So there you have it. No layoffs. Of course, none of this will get done before pink slips go out, because by law they have to go out shortly. Still, I predict we'll soon see Klein, Mayor4Life, and Mulgrew standing on the steps of city hall, hands raised in solidarity and triumph, announcing how they worked together to save NY schools and the world. We can only hope they don't kiss.

Party Like It's 1984!!!

OK, so my last attempt at telling the future hasn't exactly gone as planned. If you recall, I predicted a number of things, such as the return of mayoral control of schools, and that at least one of your admins would continue to be a dick. I admit, those were pretty safe predictions.

I did make one other prediction that came true in a big way, however. All the way back in February, when the mayor was having a hard time finding a political party that wanted him, I predicted that he'd start his own. I even suggested some possible names for his new party, such as:

The Napoleon Complex Party
The At Least I'm Not Joel Klein Party
The Screw The Workers Party

Today, my prediction came true. Uncle Mikey has decided to start his own party. In a move so transparent and Orwellian that even I couldn't have come up with it, Bloomberg named his party --wait for it---the Jobs and Education Party.

According to the News, "A Bloomberg campaign source called this 'a way for us to communicate with a voter about the mayor’s record and vision for the future when they’re making their decision'."

Really. If that's what they wanted to communicate, they could have come up with a better name, like:

The Sphincter Party
The Train the Masses for Long Boring Jobs Party
The Mayor for Life Party
The Test Prep and High Unemployment Party

If you have any ideas of your own, post them in the comments section. But I doubt you'll come up with anything funnier than the mayor.

Mr. Talk Tells the Future

In this city, telling the future of teachers is more like reading the writing on the wall. But still, in the spirit of being able to say I told you so when this all happens, here are some predictions for the near future:

Tier 5 is coming to NY teachers before you know what hits you. After negotiating the 25/55 that was really a 25/57, and not getting it done until years after they said they would, the city and UFT will eliminate it and jump on the tier 5 bandwagon that the state has embraced. Good luck, young teachers! You'll now get to pay 3% of your salary in perpetuity for the honor of retiring 7 years later than me. The city will blackmail the UFT into accepting this with the threat of layoffs, and Randi will trumpet the new tier as a major victory.

The new charter school that pays teachers $125,000 a year, and which currently has only 8 teachers chosen from a pool of 600, will become a "model" of how to do things in the city, despite the fact that there aren't 600 candidates for every 8 jobs in the city and that the city will never agree to pay teachers anywhere near $125,000. Mayor Bloomberg will use this school as a way to "prove" that only teacher quality matters, and not class size. He will, accordingly, raise class size but fail to do anything to attract teachers to NYC. Teachers will be roundly criticized when this experiment fails. Tenure will be severely eroded or eliminated in an attempt to emulate that one tiny charter school. Randi will hail this as a major victory.

The currently unfunded Teacher's Choice program, which gave teachers neither enough money nor enough choice, will be replaced by a new initiative called the Supplies Aplenty Program. Under the SAP. teachers will be required to buy all their own supplies for their entire careers, but the total will be pensionable for the new Tier 5 program. Due to the elimination of tenure, however, no teacher will ever receive their pension. Randi will be pictured on the front page of New York Teacher, a Mussolini like tilt to her head and a fistful of rubber bands thrust in the air, with the headline declaring "VICTORY!"

Mayor Bloomberg will win his third term along with mostly unchanged mayoral control of schools. He will fire Joel Klein as schools chancellor and hire Caroline Kennedy, who will be essentially the same with a much more attractive exterior. Bloomy will groom Caroline to be the next mayor of New York following his third, or possibly fourth, term (even I can't predict that one) on the theory that only the filthy rich deserve to be mayor. Regardless of whether it's Caroline in 2013 or 2017, Randi will hail her election as a major victory for teachers.

Pissed Off Teacher will rock the house in her prom dress. Randi will not hail this as a major victory for teachers, but will begin showing up in red everywhere she goes. Teachers will hail this as a major turn-off.

At least one administrator at your school will continue to be a dick. (OK, that was easy).

UPDATE: POed really did rock the house, so I am 1 for 5 so far. The other predictions are just a matter of time.